February 2010Going to WarBy David MatsudaIn Iraq it’s truly the best of times and the worst of times. The Presidency Council and the Council of Representatives, or Parliament, have passed an elections law. Prime Minister Maliki has signed the law, and it now looks like Iraq will hold its second national elections in March, one that could result in a maturing political system in which strong man rule, an emerging representative process and Islam seek to coexist. Rather than a closed list, in which the candidates are anonymous behind party banners, the elections law specifies an open list, in which candidates are identified. To mandate an open list election process, former enemies worked together to bridge what would have, not long ago, been impassable ethno-sectarian divides. The Iraqi people appear to favor cross ethno-sectarian alliances – Sunni, Shi’a and Kurd on the same ticket, as opposed Sunni, Kurd and Shi’a against one another – and a break from religious extremism. There are campaign promises of ethno-sectarian alliance building, as well as the possibility of post-election coalitions, in which power is consolidated by one group at the expense of others, rather than shared across the Iraqi Muslim umma, or community, and minority populations. The election outcome is complicated by Iraq’s appeal to the twenty-four countries with significant Iraqi diaspora to allow absentee ballots for their ex-patriots. How Iraqis whose worldview has been shaped by life in Syria, Jordon, Egypt, and other nations see the situation inside Iraq, and who they will vote for, is anyone’s guess. A disturbing pattern is emerging, one in which violence is being used to shape the electorate’s voting behavior. Daily there are reports of kidnappings, disappearances, candidates killed by weapons with silencers, and the use of “Sticky Bomb Improvised Explosive Devices” (SBIED) that can be attached to just about anything and detonated via a cell phone call. While political violence is nothing new to Iraq, it has, in the past, been largely confined to post-election processes in which newly elected sore winners settled scores with recently ousted incumbents who’d abused power and hoarded resources while in office. Should pre- and post-election violence meet in the middle at the polls, Iraq’s fledgling representative process may be dealt a serious blow, with intimidated or paid for voters left with little choice but to cast their ballots for the person and party most likely to carry-out – not campaign promises of national unity – threats that will once again pit factions against one another. Elections aside, I’m now roughly one month from redeployment to the states. Over the last several weeks I Corps’ replacements from III Corps have been making periodic visits to familiarize themselves with the situation. I find myself in a bit of a quandary, having to attend these Pre-Deployment Site Surveys (PDSSs) and brief the newcomers, while I try not to be noticed. Having not yet found my cultural advisor counterpart at III Corps, I don’t want to be asked to be my own replacement. |
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